Econometric Analysis of Key Determinants of Agricultural Output in Nigeria

This study examines the major factors influencing agricultural productivity in Nigeria over the period 1990–2024. Annual time-series data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and the World Bank Development Outlook were analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique. The key determinants considered in this study include manufacturing output, rural-urban migration, carbon dioxide emissions, agricultural credit expenditure, and agricultural export earnings. The empirical results revealed that agricultural credit expenditure and agricultural exports exert significant positive effects on agricultural output, while carbon emissions and excessive migration negatively impact growth in the sector. In both the short and long run, government investment and industrial linkages were found to play a critical role in driving agricultural performance. The study concludes that agricultural output in Nigeria is largely influenced by financial support, environmental sustainability, and rural development dynamics. It recommends that government should strengthen agricultural financing mechanisms, control rural-urban migration through rural infrastructure development, enforce environmental protection policies, and enhance agricultural-industrial integration to achieve sustainable growth.