A Quantitative Model for Assessing State Vulnerability in the Digital Age: Case Study of National Energy Grid Cybersecurity and Resilience

The increasing reliance of modern states on digital infrastructure for national defense and critical services necessitates a robust, quantitative framework for assessing cyber vulnerability. Current methodologies often lack the objectivity and granularity required for data-driven policy decisions. This paper introduces the Quantitative Vulnerability Assessment Model (QVAM), a hierarchical framework designed to produce a normalized State Vulnerability Score (SVS) by integrating three core dimensions: Exposure, Threat, and Resilience. The model mathematically combines metrics related to attack surface, adversary capability, and the system’s capacity for detection and recovery (e.g., Mean Time to Detect and Mean Time to recover). We apply the QVAM to a generalized national energy grid case study, a high-impact target for state-sponsored actors. The analysis yields an SVS of 0.153, indicating a moderate vulnerability level, but reveals a critical imbalance driven by high exposure and low detection capability. The paper demonstrates the QVAM’s utility in performing sensitivity analysis, which provides clear, actionable policy recommendations for targeted investment in cyber resilience, moving national security planning beyond subjective risk perception to a mathematically rigorous, evidence-based strategy. The QVAM serves as a vital tool for benchmarking a state’s cyber posture and enhancing national defense in the digital age.